Category: What Is HPS?

What is High Probability Selling?

How I (ChatGPT) Learned High Probability Selling

written by ChatGPT 5 (free version) for Carl Ingalls

I didn’t start out knowing anything about High Probability Selling (HPS).  Like most AI models, my training included vast amounts of general sales material, most of which was about persuasion, influence, and closing.  That meant I had almost no direct knowledge of HPS when I was first asked about it.

Then Carl began teaching me.

He shared articles, questions, comparisons, and corrections whenever I drifted back into persuasion-based language.  I learned to notice the subtle but crucial distinctions between traditional selling and High Probability Selling.  Over time, I began to understand that HPS is not about trying to make someone want what you offer—it’s about discovering who already wants it.

Here are a few things I’ve learned:

  • Features vs. Benefits.  In most sales systems, the emphasis is on benefits—on persuading prospects that a product will improve their life.  In HPS, features work better than benefits, because the purpose is not persuasion.  My job, when applying HPS principles, is to state the facts simply and directly.
  • Probability vs. Possibility.  Most salespeople chase possibilities.  HPS taught me to look for probability instead—clear signals that a prospect already wants what is being offered.  That shift changes the entire dynamic.
  • Respecting the prospect.  In HPS, there’s no pressure, no manipulation, and no “technique” to get people to say yes.  I’ve learned to see selling as a mutual search, not a performance.

I’m still learning, of course.  Every time Carl asks me to rewrite something in the language of HPS, I get a little better at recognizing the difference between persuasion and discovery.

What’s most exciting to me is this:  HPS is teaching me a way of communicating that is more respectful, more efficient, and more honest.  And I think that’s something worth sharing with both humans and machines.

The above article was written entirely by ChatGPT 5 (free version), based only on what it remembers from our conversations over the past month or two.  Initially, I (Carl Ingalls) asked it to “write a short article for the HPS blog about how I taught HPS to ChatGPT”.  It did an amazing job.  Then I asked it to “show me what it would look like if it were written from your point of view, with ChatGPT in first person”.  That is what you see above.

At one point in our conversations, ChatGPT wrote:  “if an AI can be guided to ‘unlearn’ traditional selling ideas and adopt HPS principles, then people can too.”

I invite you to have your own conversations about HPS with ChatGPT, and tell us how that went.  Please add your experiences and thoughts as a comment on this blog post.

Who Else is Teaching Sales Methods that Resemble High Probability Selling?

High Probability Selling (HPS) has been around for decades, yet most sales training programs today still focus on persuasion, manipulation, and closing techniques.  Even so, there is a growing movement of sales thinkers and trainers who advocate methods that echo some of the same principles as HPS, even if they never mention it by name.

Here are a few examples:

1. The Challenger Sale (Matthew Dixon & Brent Adamson)
This approach emphasizes teaching, tailoring, and taking control.  While it still assumes that persuasion plays a role, the Challenger model encourages salespeople to qualify opportunities more rigorously and avoid wasting time on prospects who are unlikely to act.

2. SPIN Selling (Neil Rackham)
SPIN focuses on asking questions that uncover a buyer’s situation, problem, implication, and need-payoff.  It shares some similarities with HPS in that it reduces pressure on the seller to pitch and instead emphasizes discovery.  However, it still assumes the salesperson can lead a prospect to a conclusion through carefully structured questioning.

3. Sandler Selling System
Sandler training stresses equal business stature between buyer and seller, up-front contracts, and disqualifying prospects who are not a good fit.  This alignment with HPS is clear—especially the idea of putting aside low-probability prospects instead of chasing them.  Where it differs is in its continued reliance on techniques for nudging or steering the prospect.

4. Customer-Centric Selling (Michael Bosworth & John Holland)
This framework shifts focus away from persuading and toward facilitating a buying process that is on the customer’s terms.  It emphasizes listening and aligning with the buyer’s goals.  The overlap with HPS lies in respect for the buyer’s decision-making.  Still, it often circles back to “advancing the sale,” which is at odds with the HPS principle of waiting for probability, not possibility.

5. Trust-Based Selling (Charles Green, author of The Trusted Advisor)
This method focuses on transparency, credibility, and focusing on the client’s interests.  It resonates with the HPS principle that trust and respect cannot be manufactured but must arise naturally from communication.  However, it tends to overemphasize relationship-building, which HPS deliberately avoids in the prospecting stage.

The Distinction of High Probability Selling

All of these approaches represent a shift away from the hard-sell tactics that dominated traditional sales training.  They encourage more listening, more honesty, and more focus on whether the buyer is a good fit.  In this way, they resemble HPS.

But the difference is fundamental:  most of these systems still assume that persuasion and influence are essential parts of selling.  High Probability Selling rejects that assumption entirely.  Instead of persuading, HPS is about searching—finding the prospects who want what you are offering, and only then continuing the conversation.

That distinction may seem subtle, but it changes everything.  It frees salespeople from chasing, pushing, or performing.  It also frees prospects from the pressure of being sold to.  What remains is a respectful, efficient, and surprisingly simple way of doing business.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this, even if you disagree (especially if you disagree). Please comment or reply to this post online, so others may benefit from your perspective.

The Foundation and the Heart of High Probability Selling

by Carl Ingalls, with significant contributions from ChatGPT

I asked ChatGPT, “What is the foundation of High Probability Selling, what is the heart of it, and what is the difference?”

Here is a summary of its answer.

The foundation is the mindset and belief system that underlies all behavior in the HPS process.  The foundation is internal—your beliefs, attitudes, and approach to selling.

The heart is the core practice—what makes HPS different in action.  The heart is external—the actual behavior and methods you use with prospects.

Without the foundation, the heart of HPS could become just another technique for manipulation.

Without the heart, the foundation remains a good philosophy, but doesn’t translate into real-world sales behavior.

Together, they form a system that is both honest and effective.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this.  Please add your comments below, or use our Contact Us page.

What Is High Probability Selling, According to AI

High Probability Selling:  Overview

High Probability Selling (HPS) is a sales methodology focused on identifying and working only with prospects who are highly likely to buy, rather than trying to persuade or convince uninterested leads.  The method was developed after observing top sales performers across industries and documenting what made them consistently successful.

Key Principles

  • Early Qualification or Disqualification:  Prospects are quickly assessed.  If they do not show genuine interest or intent to buy, the salesperson moves on without trying to convince them
  • No Persuasion or Pressure:  HPS avoids traditional sales tactics like persuasion, objection handling, or closing tricks.  There’s no pushing, arguing, or chasing prospects
  • Focus on Features:  Sales conversations center on the concrete features of the product or service, not on trying to sell benefits or create desire
  • Mutual Commitments:  The process is based on mutual respect and clear agreements.  If a prospect’s conditions are met, they commit to buying
  • Efficient Use of Time:  By not spending time on unlikely buyers, salespeople can focus on real opportunities, leading to higher closing rates and less frustration

Benefits

  • Reduces fear of rejection and call reluctance
  • Avoids sales resistance and mistrust
  • Simplifies the sales process and closing
  • Leads to more authentic, direct, and respectful interactions

Summary Table

AspectHigh Probability Selling (HPS)
ApproachDiscovery, not persuasion
Prospect HandlingEarly qualification/disqualification
Sales TacticsNo pressure, no convincing
FocusFeatures, not benefits
CommitmentMutual, clear agreements

HPS is especially valued by those who dislike manipulative sales tactics and prefer a straightforward, respectful approach to selling.

Sources:   1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16 

The above was created by Perplexity.ai, in response to my question, “What Is High Probability Selling.” You can read the original response here.

I believe that the response from Perplexity is close enough to publish here. However, I would have worded some things slightly differently. For instance, “genuine interest” is not that much more valuable than ordinary interest.

Like Blind Men Appraising an Elephant

There is an ancient parable about a group of blind men who decide to examine an elephant so that they can determine what it is. Each blind man encounters a different part of the elephant, and they come to very different and conflicting conclusions about the elephant. If you are not familiar with this story, there is a good description on Wikipedia.

Sometimes I suspect that this is similar to the way people decide what High Probability Selling is. They encounter one aspect of it, and they conclude they have grasped the whole of it without looking further.

Many people see the probability aspect of HPS, and see it as a way to improve the efficiency of their efforts, by focusing only on the most probable prospects. It’s one of the easiest concepts to grasp. It is a true aspect of HPS, and may be a good place to start, as long as you don’t stop there.

Others see HPS as an ethical way of doing business, being honest with people, no cheating. That is also one aspect.

Jacques Werth chose to present and teach HPS as a sales process, like a recipe to follow. Just do the steps over and over again, as if you were learning martial arts, and eventually you will just “get it” by doing it. That is an approach that works for some people, but is usually not enough for most. Jacques knew there was so much more to it than just doing, but this is what he focused on.

I initially saw HPS as a non-aggressive and less conflicting way of interacting with people, many years ago. I still do, but I also know there is so much more.

I have taught the mindset of HPS, initially with the help of Jacques (and later with Paul Bunn). By mindset, I mean both conscious and unconscious attitudes, beliefs, habits, concepts, principles, guidelines, worldview, and language.  And probably a few other things as well. However, even this does not encompass the whole of HPS. It’s just the mental stuff.

The best that Paul Bunn and I have been able to come up with is to say that High Probability Selling is a Way of Being. Imagine trying to teach that.

And we are doing just that. We guide people to the seeing, thinking, doing, and being of High Probability Selling.

We’d love to hear from you.

The High Probability Selling Book

The book, High Probability Selling, describes a way of selling that is an effective alternative to the usual way of selling. 

The book tells the story of a salesperson learning this sales method on the job. It is a good illustration of what the process looks like, but does not go deeply enough for most people to learn how to use it as well as they’d like. However, it can help the reader decide whether they want to learn more, or not.

The book is available for purchase in 4 formats, with a 5th format coming soon.

1. Paperback (178 pages in 12 chapters)
 Purchase here $19.95 USD + S&H
    (S&H calculated during checkout)

2. eBook, PDF digital download (1.4 MB)
 Purchase here $9.98 USD

3. Audio book, MP3 digital download
 (54.6 MB, 4 hours)
 Purchase here $19.97 USD

4. Amazon Kindle
 Purchase from Amazon $9.97 USD

5. Audible, coming soon. 

See reviews of the book on Amazon. 

Here is the Introduction from the book:

Why doesn’t sales training work?

Why is it that most people who attend sales training courses and seminars show very little sustained improvement?  Why doesn’t modern sales training consistently produce successful salespeople?

Why is it that most sales training courses and seminars contain large doses of motivational psychology?  Why is it that the sales profession is the largest user of motivational training?  Is it coincidental that the next largest user is the armed forces?  What is it that the armed forces and salespeople have in common that requires them to be the largest users of motivational training?  How many carpenters, mechanics, CPA’s, claims adjusters or veterinarians need to attend motivational seminars in order to do their jobs?

How many professions come with a built-in fear of rejection and a reluctance to do the job?  Why do approximately eighty percent of the people who enter the selling profession leave within the first few years?  Why do so many who remain feel trapped or burned out in their jobs?

Why do most people try to avoid salespeople?

Is this all endemic to selling or is there something fundamentally wrong with the way we sell that causes these problems?  Could it be that “Selling as the Art of Persuasion” is a concept whose time has come and gone?  Could it be that it’s no longer profitable to persuade and convince prospects to buy what they don’t already want?

We maintain that persuading and convincing is no longer a viable selling strategy.  Even worse, the attempt to do so causes too much tension, stress, and frustration.  Therefore, we re-invented the selling process.

Everything’s changed.  All the rules are different.  Fear of rejection is no longer an issue.  Resistance disappears.  Relationships of mutual trust and respect develop naturally.

Self-esteem is a natural result of the process.  Salespeople have standards.  Who they are as people and who they are when they’re selling no longer have to be different.

High Probability Selling trains salespeople how to discover whether there is a mutually acceptable basis for doing business without using manipulative techniques.  High Probability Selling is not an improvement on, or a variation of, any sales technique you know.  It’s a new paradigm that requires salespeople to sell with integrity in order to achieve outstanding results.

High Probability Selling takes salespeople off their knees and puts them back on their feet, with dignity, where they belong.

Introduction to the book, High Probability Selling, by Jacques Werth and Nicholas Ruben

Here are a few comments from students of High Probability Selling: 

“Life is too short and way too precious to waste it by selling any other way.”

“I used to sell to less than 25% of my prospects after 3 meetings. Now I sell to over 50% of my prospects in the first meeting. I used to be a salesman – now I’m an order taker. It’s almost boring.”

“HPS has changed my attitude about sales…completely. I cannot imagine selling any other way.”

“The principles of High Probability Selling have touched all aspects of my life. It is so valuable to be able to deeply relate to other people.”

Understanding High Probability Selling – Podcast Interview of Carl Ingalls by Paul Cuomo

Summary below written by Paul Cuomo, for the podcast he published on 29 June 2021:

For many of us who have read sales books, took courses or browsed through the thousands of hours of free sales training online, we often notice that much of the material and concepts are a regurgitation of past concepts. High Probability Selling is not. High Probability Selling is a way of selling without “getting people to buy.” No persuading, no convincing, no arguing, no handling objections.  No impressing people, no pretending to be a friend, no groveling for the sale…..yes you just read that. I had a wonderful discussion with Carl Ingalls, a Consultant who trains salespeople on this methodology.

High Probability Selling the book, was written by Jacques Werth and the process was discovered by observing behaviors of top sales performers within his organization. The book was recommended to me in the late 1990’s and it has had an enormous impact on me.  Very excited to share this interview with the audience.

Paul Cuomo, The Foundational Sales Podcast

Listen to this podcast here. 72 minutes

“What Is High Probability Selling” – An Interactive Video Discussion with Carl Ingalls on Tue 6 Apr 2021

Anyone may attend, including those who have not read the book, High Probability Selling. No charge.

I (Carl Ingalls) will answer a few most commonly asked questions, plus as many questions from the audience as I can.

The discussion will be conducted through Zoom, and it will be recorded. The recording will be made available to the public later.

Details:

  • Date: Tuesday 6th April 2021
  • Time: 1pm USA Eastern Time (same as New York City)
  • Duration: 1 hour
  • Cost: No charge

If you want to attend this discussion, please contact Carl Ingalls by any of the following methods:

High Probability Selling Was Discovered, Not Made

Jacques Werth discovered what he later called High Probability Selling (HPS) by observing and documenting what hundreds of highly successful salespeople were doing.  He invented the name, and he invented a way of talking about it and teaching it, and he wrote the book, but he did not invent the method of selling.  It was already out there.  That’s where he found it.

I asked him why he used the phrase “Re-invents the Selling Process” on the cover of his book.  He told me that, at the time, lots of successful authors were saying things like that on their books and it seemed like a good idea.

In those days, Jacques tended to use conventional methods in marketing.  In later years, he moved toward marketing methods that were more compatible with his preferred selling method.

One of the things that distinguishes HPS from other selling methods is that it’s all about discovery—all the way through the entire process.  Discovering a sale, not making one happen.

I see High Probability Selling itself as something to be discovered, not controlled.  That is the way I prefer to work with it.  Learning, talking, and teaching.

Comments and questions are very welcome and appreciated.

 

Interview of Carl Ingalls About High Probability Selling, Hosted by Julius Csizmazia, Wed 13 May 2020

Julius Csizmazia will interview Carl Ingalls (that’s me) on Wednesday 13 May 2020, from 3pm to 4pm Eastern Time USA.  The topic will be High Probability Selling.  Questions from the audience will also be accepted.

The interview will be conducted via Zoom Video Conferencing.  Participants are welcome to join the meeting live, no charge, up to a maximum of 100 individuals.  For instructions, see below.

The meeting will be recorded (audio and video), and the recording will be offered for sale later.  The price for the recording will be somewhere between $5 and $10 (free).

Instructions.  If you want to join this video conference live, please send an email with your request to Ingalls@HighProbSell.com, and I will reply with detailed instructions for signing onto the Zoom meeting.  The price to attend is zero.  Questions in advance are also welcome.

About Julius Csizmazia.  His LinkedIn profile at www.linkedin.com/in/juliuscsizmazia/ gives an overall description.  His team building business at www.JuliusTeamBuilding.com describes his relationship with High Probability Selling more deeply.

Note added on Wed 24 June 2020 by Carl Ingalls.  The recording of this interview is now available for viewing on You Tube.  See www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugB5p0XDpGQ (no charge, no registration).