Category: High Probability Selling

Blog posts that explain High Probability Selling

Perfectly Logical Reasons Why High Probability Selling Cannot Possibly Work

  1. High Probability Selling (HPS) is too direct.  I can’t communicate that directly with my prospects or clients, because they’ll be offended.  And if I offend them by asking direct questions, I will lose the sale.
  2. The reason people buy from me is because I’m so nice to them.  Everyone knows that people HAVE to like the salesperson.  If I stop being super nice to them, they’ll stop buying from me.
  3. HPS doesn’t require any sucking up or flattery or feigning interest in what the customer likes.  But if I don’t find commonality and create rapport, then how can I get them to like me?
  4. HPS will get me less appointments.  Sales is a numbers game, and less appointments ALWAYS means less sales.
  5. HPS recommends disqualifying prospects who aren’t ready to do business.  I can’t afford to leave money on the table without chasing every single opportunity, no matter how unlikely.
  6. The High Probability Selling book is all about outbound prospecting, and I don’t do outbound prospecting.  All my calls are inbound or referral, so there’s no way it will work for me.
  7. The book is based on selling B2B (business to business).  I only sell B2C (business to consumer), so it won’t work for me.
  8. I am in financial services, and I do seminar selling, and seminar selling isn’t mentioned in the book, so HPS won’t work for me.
  9. HPS says that you don’t have to educate people to get them to buy.  I sell to consumers who never know what they want and can’t make a decision.  Unless I am there to tell them what they want and why they want it, I won’t make any sales.  So HPS won’t work for me.
  10. The only reason people buy from me is because I’m able to impress them with all of my knowledge and credentials, and unless I wow them more than the other guys, they’re not going to buy from me.
  11. High Probability Selling claims to be selling without needing to overcome objections.  But that’s impossible, because everyone knows you have to overcome objections in order to sell anything.  My job as a salesperson doesn’t even start until they say “no”.
  12. Order takers aren’t real salespeople.  People who get lay-down sales aren’t working hard for it, and I don’t want to be perceived as someone who finds sales easy, so HPS won’t work for me.
  13. HPS is all scripted and C level executives hate scripts, so it won’t work for me.
  14. Success at HPS requires that I keep track of my prospecting and sales activity, and I hate keeping records.  I enjoy winging it and going by feel, so HPS isn’t going to work for me.

This is just a few reasons HPS can’t possibly work.  There are certainly a lot more.  If you have any to contribute, or if you want to learn more, please join us for our next HPS Community Forum meeting (details below).

You are also welcome to add comments to this blog post.  We will answer as many as we can.

When:  Thursday 19 June 2025 at 9:30 AM (USA Eastern Time)
Google Calendar Link

[Zoom access details removed]

This meeting will be recorded.  A link to the recording will be emailed to the people who attend this meeting.  If you want a copy of the recording for this particular meeting, and are not sure that you will be able to attend, please Contact Us and with a request for the recording before the meeting begins.

There is no charge to attend.  You are welcome to invite friends and colleagues.

Mystery of Sales Strategy – The Probability Game

Sales can be a bit of a mystery to many people.

People who do it, people who see it done, and the people who have never seen it done, but think they have. 

It has existed for a long, long time in the category of business alchemy and marketing. 

In the world of alchemy, what makes sense doesn’t work. What doesn’t make sense suddenly works. And then when we make sense of that, it doesn’t work anymore.

We look under every rock and internet resource and folklore and the rumor mill, constantly seeking that magic formula that will produce the results we seek.

The result we seek is for someone to say yes. 

In conventional sales techniques, gurus are all promising that they have the secret way to get everybody to say yes 100% of the time.

It’s been more than 100 years since assembly line style of scientific psycho selling has been invented.

We are all searching and seeking, drunk on dopamine that this one thing will be the one, the Holy Grail, the one phrase, the magic word, the technique that will get everyone we call and everyone we sit in front of and everyone we meet with to say, “Yes, where have you been my whole life?” 

Then something works.  We hear the yeses.  We draw the conclusion that we’ve been waiting for decades to draw, that we finally found the formula. 

So if an unexpected number of prospects say yes, when I’m using a technique that I picked up from a YouTube video by Jim Bandersnatch, then that’s why all those people, all of a sudden, said yes.  So now whenever I sell, I’m going to make sure I use the Bandersnatch technique, because that’s what made them say yes.

And of all the products and services that I sell, if the emotional charge, the emotional bookmark, the feeling was powerful enough when an unexpected person or persons said yes, then I become completely smitten with that particular product.  Because that product is the one that sells itself, a no-brainer.

And since I love the feeling of people saying yes, and I love the feeling associated of people buying from me, and I love the accolades that I get from people buying from me more than they buy from anyone else, then I’m going to chase that feeling constantly, even after conditions have changed.

Even after prospects (also known as people who are extraordinarily illogical) have changed their minds about the wonder product that I’m convinced will never stop selling, and they all stop buying it, even when I use the Bandersnatch technique.

So when things are working, whatever that means for us, and we happen to be using the Bandersnatch technique, and we keep our rabbit’s foot in our left pocket and a silver dollar in our right pocket, and we wear our shoes on the opposite feet, we don’t stop to inquire.

We’re like the gambler who thinks that they’re on a winning streak.

We worry about being attached to the outcome of a sale.  We’re not attached to the outcome of a sale. We’re attached to the feeling.  We’re attached to the thought that we found the magical combination of random factors that will produce the feeling that we’ve been seeking.

Casinos make billions of dollars off of that feeling, and normally intelligent, practical people, driven most of the time by common sense, will hand their money over to a casino as soon as they have had the feeling of getting lucky.

Now the professional poker player knows that the feeling of winning and the feeling of being lucky is the precursor to the apocalypse.

The professional poker player is a statistician.  Even when playing against people, they work in the field of mathematical probabilities, because they don’t give two craps about the feeling of winning.  They’re motivated by profit. Profit respects probabilities, and profit doesn’t care at all about feelings, and profit doesn’t care about beliefs.  Professional poker players laugh hysterically at beliefs. 

Most salespeople (at least the lower 99% according to our research and observation) run entirely on feelings, beliefs, hope and superstition.  The top 1% of salespeople operate on probabilities.  Real questions, definitive answers, real data, and they never ever operate on beliefs or hopium.

Jacques Werth dreamed of introducing High Probability Selling to a world full of super superstition.  He hoped that a straightforward, transparent sales process based on things like mutual respect and trust (like he observed and codified from three or four decades of observing top salespeople) would change the world.

It would somehow provide an alternative Way Of Being for salespeople (and those who find themselves having to do sales-like things in work, business and life).  This alternative way of being, way of interacting, way of communicating is based on probabilities.

It’s not exciting.  It doesn’t generate adrenaline.

When they made a sale or someone bought something from them, none of the top salespeople he studied did a happy dance.  They knew better than to establish for themselves an emotional bookmark, or even to consider that they would connect a specific technique or phrase and relate that directly to the fact that a client or prospect purchased their product. 

They knew intuitively that if they just showed up statistically at the right time and place, when their prospects and customers were ready to buy, that all that hope and all that attachment to the magic technique and the Holy Grail would actually stop and get in the way of business being done.

So what they really did was they figured out a way to reverse engineer the typical conventional assembly line sales process that everyone was taught, including them, and they removed all the parts of it that get in the way of doing business. 

All of the beliefs about making someone buy, the beliefs about manipulation, the beliefs about if I just use the right words, the beliefs about if I just used the Bandersnatch technique, all the beliefs, superstitions, where to put the rabbit’s foot, putting the silver dollar in the right pocket instead of the left pocket, wearing the right clothes, driving the right car, living in the right house, all the bullshit, all of the trappings of someone who is playing a sales game, instead of finding and doing business with people who want to do business.  

And unless you’re a professional poker player, stay the hell out of a casino if you have any propensity of thinking it’s about luck.  It’s actually High Probability Selling.  The casino is playing the probability game too, and the House never loses until someone comes in who’s playing the probability game against them.  And then they get nervous.

What Is High Probability Selling, According to AI

High Probability Selling:  Overview

High Probability Selling (HPS) is a sales methodology focused on identifying and working only with prospects who are highly likely to buy, rather than trying to persuade or convince uninterested leads.  The method was developed after observing top sales performers across industries and documenting what made them consistently successful.

Key Principles

  • Early Qualification or Disqualification:  Prospects are quickly assessed.  If they do not show genuine interest or intent to buy, the salesperson moves on without trying to convince them
  • No Persuasion or Pressure:  HPS avoids traditional sales tactics like persuasion, objection handling, or closing tricks.  There’s no pushing, arguing, or chasing prospects
  • Focus on Features:  Sales conversations center on the concrete features of the product or service, not on trying to sell benefits or create desire
  • Mutual Commitments:  The process is based on mutual respect and clear agreements.  If a prospect’s conditions are met, they commit to buying
  • Efficient Use of Time:  By not spending time on unlikely buyers, salespeople can focus on real opportunities, leading to higher closing rates and less frustration

Benefits

  • Reduces fear of rejection and call reluctance
  • Avoids sales resistance and mistrust
  • Simplifies the sales process and closing
  • Leads to more authentic, direct, and respectful interactions

Summary Table

AspectHigh Probability Selling (HPS)
ApproachDiscovery, not persuasion
Prospect HandlingEarly qualification/disqualification
Sales TacticsNo pressure, no convincing
FocusFeatures, not benefits
CommitmentMutual, clear agreements

HPS is especially valued by those who dislike manipulative sales tactics and prefer a straightforward, respectful approach to selling.

Sources:   1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16 

The above was created by Perplexity.ai, in response to my question, “What Is High Probability Selling.” You can read the original response here.

I believe that the response from Perplexity is close enough to publish here. However, I would have worded some things slightly differently. For instance, “genuine interest” is not that much more valuable than ordinary interest.

Mindset – Note from a fan and practitioner of HPS

Hi Carl

I absolutely support everything about HPS.

You’re so correct, it is a mindset, if someone doesn’t get that it won’t work.

My work in selling was as an Audiologist providing hearing healthcare, selling hearing aids with ongoing aftercare, it was totally the psychology of “finding people who want you’ve got” and dismissing (at that time) those who don’t. 

The mistake fellow Audiologists make is to find someone with a hearing loss and try to sell them hearing aids!!!

Our sales managers want sellers to sell, I didn’t, however that could resulting in a typical 25+% cancellation rate. I wanted to find those who wanted to buy and my consultation involved being confident to know the time was not now. I felt in control. I was a top seller and had a super low 7% cancellation rate, it would never be 0%. 

My sales manager picked on the 7% as a weakness to sell, “you could sell even more if you pushed harder” he said! 

I never had to cold call but my appointments were still somewhat cold so that was my starting point. 

My first question was always 
“why have you come to see me?” ie to put the onus on them straight away and then go on to find out if they wanted what I had and to know when to stop.

Apologies if that’s a little rambling 🤣

Regards
Ian

We would love to hear your thoughts and experiences as well.

We are in the process of putting together a workshop about the High Probability Selling Mindset. We will announce it here, so stay tuned.

What Do We Mean by Mindset?

We asked ChatGPT for its opinion on what is mindset, and here is what it gave us.

A mindset refers to a mental attitude or inclination, a particular way of thinking or approaching situations. It encompasses beliefs, assumptions, and attitudes that shape how individuals perceive and respond to the world around them. Mindsets can influence behavior, decision-making, and overall outlook on life, often determining one’s approach to challenges, opportunities, and relationships.

Not bad, in my opinion.

And here is something I (Carl Ingalls) put together on the topic a while ago, but haven’t published until now.

Mindset drives our thinking, actions, and reactions.  It affects how other people interact with us, whether consciously or unconsciously.  Furthermore, our mindset affects our ability to learn and apply High Probability Selling (HPS). 

Here are some of the elements of the HPS Mindset.

  • Principles and guidelines are conscious ideas of what to do and what not to do in specific situations. For example, if a prospect tells us that they do not want what we are offering, then we move on to the next prospect in our list, without trying to change anyone’s mind.
  • Concepts and beliefs are mostly conscious ideas of what we believe are true. For example, “Sales resistance is created by the salesperson when they try to get someone to buy.” Another example, “It is quicker and more effective to find someone who wants what you are selling, than to try to convince anyone who doesn’t.”
  • Attitudes and worldview and some beliefs are things that we don’t think about as much, but which can have a huge effect on our interactions with others. An attitude of acceptance and respect is more likely to lead to a good business relationship than a controlling attitude.
  • Language matters, because the words we choose affect our thinking and therefore our behavior, and sometimes in subtle (but important) ways. For instance, words like win, drive, steer, funnel, and pipeline can encourage a competitive or even manipulative attitude. Even thinking those words can have subtle effects.
  • Habits may be the most difficult to change, and especially the ones we don’t think about. For instance, many of us are habitual talkers, and that gets in the way of listening, which is so very important in HPS. Another habit is trying to help people who do not want our help.

We are in the process of putting together a workshop about the High Probability Selling Mindset. We will announce it here, so keep tuned.

As always, we would love to hear from you.

High Probability Selling – Mindset vs Process, Thinking vs Acting

Sometimes High Probability Selling (HPS) feels like it’s incredibly simple. Sometimes it feels like it’s the most complex idea on earth.  I have certainly oscillated between both of those extremes and maybe you have too.

The focus of teaching and implementing HPS from 2000 to 2015 has mostly been on the PROCESS, the steps of what you do, and much less on the thinking that goes with it. This was a conscious choice by Jacques Werth, the founder of High Probability Selling.

He chose to teach HPS the way he was taught martial arts.  Practice the physical forms, over and over and over and over, until you “get it” and it becomes automatic.  He knew very well that this was just a way of getting there, and that there was far more to HPS.

He also chose to sell HPS as a sales process, perhaps because it seemed more concrete and real that way, and because that was the kind of thing he was most familiar with selling. He always seemed surprised when asked, “What if High Prob were more than just a process?”

Some students were very successful in learning and applying HPS simply as a process, but too many were not. They needed to understand the aspects of HPS that were both behind and beyond the step-by-step process before they could actually do any of it. And without the doing, nothing happens.

Understanding the MINDSET is a necessity when trying to figure out what to do when things change. People have changed the way they do business and the way they communicate with each other, and especially over the past several decades. This means the sales process must change. A fixed process is too rigid.

I have learned in my 30 years of learning, teaching, and implementing HPS in a wide variety of business and personal applications that the process alone (without a deeper understanding) can actually do more harm than good.  To make HPS really “work” holistically, and without having to constantly adapt the process I had to fully understand and implement the mindset behind HPS, and the communication nuances based upon that mindset.

There’s much more to HPS than getting the steps right, or the words right.  To excel at HPS, I learned that I must BE HPS, not just DO HPS.  And to BE HPS, we have to embrace and adopt the HPS MINDSET.

We will write more about the Mindset of High Probability Selling as we understand it today. It’s a very big concept. We also plan to offer a workshop on this very soon. Stay tuned.

As always, we’d love to hear from you.

Like Blind Men Appraising an Elephant

There is an ancient parable about a group of blind men who decide to examine an elephant so that they can determine what it is. Each blind man encounters a different part of the elephant, and they come to very different and conflicting conclusions about the elephant. If you are not familiar with this story, there is a good description on Wikipedia.

Sometimes I suspect that this is similar to the way people decide what High Probability Selling is. They encounter one aspect of it, and they conclude they have grasped the whole of it without looking further.

Many people see the probability aspect of HPS, and see it as a way to improve the efficiency of their efforts, by focusing only on the most probable prospects. It’s one of the easiest concepts to grasp. It is a true aspect of HPS, and may be a good place to start, as long as you don’t stop there.

Others see HPS as an ethical way of doing business, being honest with people, no cheating. That is also one aspect.

Jacques Werth chose to present and teach HPS as a sales process, like a recipe to follow. Just do the steps over and over again, as if you were learning martial arts, and eventually you will just “get it” by doing it. That is an approach that works for some people, but is usually not enough for most. Jacques knew there was so much more to it than just doing, but this is what he focused on.

I initially saw HPS as a non-aggressive and less conflicting way of interacting with people, many years ago. I still do, but I also know there is so much more.

I have taught the mindset of HPS, initially with the help of Jacques (and later with Paul Bunn). By mindset, I mean both conscious and unconscious attitudes, beliefs, habits, concepts, principles, guidelines, worldview, and language.  And probably a few other things as well. However, even this does not encompass the whole of HPS. It’s just the mental stuff.

The best that Paul Bunn and I have been able to come up with is to say that High Probability Selling is a Way of Being. Imagine trying to teach that.

And we are doing just that. We guide people to the seeing, thinking, doing, and being of High Probability Selling.

We’d love to hear from you.

New Course for 2024: High Probability Selling for Inbound Selling

The Backstory: HPS and Inbound Selling

Since the 1990s, High Probability Selling (HPS) has focused predominantly on outbound telephone prospecting, followed by a sales appointment or closing process. Despite the fact that Jacques Werth, one of the co-authors of the HPS book, successfully implemented HPS in several businesses with primarily inbound traffic, the book and training did not cover how to handle inbound sales.

When I asked Jacques about applying HPS to inbound sales calls, he suggested, “just listen to them long enough to give them an outbound prospecting offer.” However, I found that this approach was ineffective and often counterproductive, frustrating both the prospect and me, as well as the referral source.

Through my own experiences, I quickly realized that the traditional HPS methods were not suited for inbound calls. Abandoning HPS was not an option for me, as it would create more chaos. Instead, I adapted HPS to fit inbound selling scenarios.

From 2010, over 13 years working in health insurance agencies and call centers that handled 95% inbound calls, I developed a new approach. I created what we now call “HPS in a non-HPS world” for inbound selling. As I successfully applied these adaptations as an agent, I also trained, coached, and supervised others in implementing HPS for inbound callers.

Why Adapt HPS for Inbound Selling?

Outbound calls are straightforward; you know the topic, the offer, and the likely responses. However, inbound calls are unpredictable. You don’t know who is calling, why they are calling, or even if it’s a sales call. This unpredictability can unsettle even the most seasoned sales professionals.

Through trial and error, I learned how to listen effectively to inbound callers, determining if a sale was possible and if the caller was a High Probability Prospect (HPP). If they were not, I developed ways to gracefully lead them to an exit point while preserving the opportunity for future warm calls. This gentle and respectful disqualification is crucial for maximizing inbound call opportunities.

Workshop Content

This course will teach you how to handle inbound calls using the HPS framework. You will learn:

  • Common Pitfalls and Mistakes: Identify and avoid common mistakes made during inbound calls.
  • Effective Listening Skills: Listen to discern the caller’s primary and secondary concerns, ensuring open and transparent communication.
  • Customer Needs Identification: Identify both expressed and unspoken customer problems and determine their conditions of satisfaction.
  • Resolving Customer Concerns: Find mutually beneficial solutions and establish a respectful, ongoing business relationship.
  • Overcoming Salesperson Biases: Recognize and mitigate preconceived ideas and beliefs that hinder understanding and connection.
  • Creating a Safe Space: Make prospects feel safe to share necessary information for both their benefit and yours.
  • Maintaining HPS Mindset: Balance qualification and disqualification while maintaining neutrality.
  • Implementing HPS Processes: Design and implement written processes to handle inbound inquiries efficiently.

Personal Insights and Strategies

During the workshop, I will share personal anecdotes and strategies that helped me adapt HPS to inbound selling. You’ll learn:

  • How to handle inbound calls confidently and effectively, maintaining the HPS mindset.
  • How to design and implement HPS processes specific to your business needs.
  • How to ensure inbound calls become enjoyable and profitable experiences.

Conclusion

This interactive workshop will equip you with the skills and insights to manage inbound calls successfully, even the unexpected ones. You will discover that handling inbound calls can be a highly enjoyable and profitable part of your sales process.

Instruction: Live and interactive on Zoom, taught by Paul Bunn (with over 13 years selling this way and teaching others) in three sessions. Recordings of live sessions also provided. One-on-one coaching available.

Schedule:  The next course begins Fri 24 May 2024 at 9:30 AM (USA Eastern Time).  The second and third sessions of that course are Fri 31 May and Fri 7 June, same time. 

Price:  $547 USD per person
Purchase:  click here

For updates on this course, see https://www.highprobsell.com/training/inbound.html

The High Probability Selling Book

The book, High Probability Selling, describes a way of selling that is an effective alternative to the usual way of selling. 

The book tells the story of a salesperson learning this sales method on the job. It is a good illustration of what the process looks like, but does not go deeply enough for most people to learn how to use it as well as they’d like. However, it can help the reader decide whether they want to learn more, or not.

The book is available for purchase in 4 formats, with a 5th format coming soon.

1. Paperback (178 pages in 12 chapters)
 Purchase here $19.95 USD + S&H
    (S&H calculated during checkout)

2. eBook, PDF digital download (1.4 MB)
 Purchase here $9.98 USD

3. Audio book, MP3 digital download
 (54.6 MB, 4 hours)
 Purchase here $19.97 USD

4. Amazon Kindle
 Purchase from Amazon $9.97 USD

5. Audible, coming soon. 

See reviews of the book on Amazon. 

Here is the Introduction from the book:

Why doesn’t sales training work?

Why is it that most people who attend sales training courses and seminars show very little sustained improvement?  Why doesn’t modern sales training consistently produce successful salespeople?

Why is it that most sales training courses and seminars contain large doses of motivational psychology?  Why is it that the sales profession is the largest user of motivational training?  Is it coincidental that the next largest user is the armed forces?  What is it that the armed forces and salespeople have in common that requires them to be the largest users of motivational training?  How many carpenters, mechanics, CPA’s, claims adjusters or veterinarians need to attend motivational seminars in order to do their jobs?

How many professions come with a built-in fear of rejection and a reluctance to do the job?  Why do approximately eighty percent of the people who enter the selling profession leave within the first few years?  Why do so many who remain feel trapped or burned out in their jobs?

Why do most people try to avoid salespeople?

Is this all endemic to selling or is there something fundamentally wrong with the way we sell that causes these problems?  Could it be that “Selling as the Art of Persuasion” is a concept whose time has come and gone?  Could it be that it’s no longer profitable to persuade and convince prospects to buy what they don’t already want?

We maintain that persuading and convincing is no longer a viable selling strategy.  Even worse, the attempt to do so causes too much tension, stress, and frustration.  Therefore, we re-invented the selling process.

Everything’s changed.  All the rules are different.  Fear of rejection is no longer an issue.  Resistance disappears.  Relationships of mutual trust and respect develop naturally.

Self-esteem is a natural result of the process.  Salespeople have standards.  Who they are as people and who they are when they’re selling no longer have to be different.

High Probability Selling trains salespeople how to discover whether there is a mutually acceptable basis for doing business without using manipulative techniques.  High Probability Selling is not an improvement on, or a variation of, any sales technique you know.  It’s a new paradigm that requires salespeople to sell with integrity in order to achieve outstanding results.

High Probability Selling takes salespeople off their knees and puts them back on their feet, with dignity, where they belong.

Introduction to the book, High Probability Selling, by Jacques Werth and Nicholas Ruben

Here are a few comments from students of High Probability Selling: 

“Life is too short and way too precious to waste it by selling any other way.”

“I used to sell to less than 25% of my prospects after 3 meetings. Now I sell to over 50% of my prospects in the first meeting. I used to be a salesman – now I’m an order taker. It’s almost boring.”

“HPS has changed my attitude about sales…completely. I cannot imagine selling any other way.”

“The principles of High Probability Selling have touched all aspects of my life. It is so valuable to be able to deeply relate to other people.”

Thinking in the Language of High Probability Selling – Short Course

Features:

Topics include:
– The power of unspoken words.
– How to stay in the High Probability Selling (HPS) zone.
– How to recognize when mixing incompatible paradigms.
– The truth about Poison Words.  
– How to keep the thinking from getting in the way.

  • Taught by Paul Bunn and Carl Ingalls.
  • Live group webinars on Zoom, two sessions, two hours each, spaced one week apart. 
  • Webinar recordings will be sent to everyone who purchases this course.
  • Exercises will be assigned to do between sessions.
  • Coaching (one-on-one) after the course:  two sessions, 60 minutes each.

Schedule:  Starts Thursday 4 January 2024 at 11:30am USA Eastern Time.  Session #2 is one week later, same time.  Also see the HPS Calendar for updates. 

Price:  $497 USD

Sign Up & Purchase:  click here

If you purchase this course, please include your email address, so we can send you the Zoom instructions. 

Questions? Please Contact Us, or call +1 610-627-9030, or email Ingalls@HighProbSell.com