High Probability Selling (HPS) has been around for decades, yet most sales training programs today still focus on persuasion, manipulation, and closing techniques. Even so, there is a growing movement of sales thinkers and trainers who advocate methods that echo some of the same principles as HPS, even if they never mention it by name.
Here are a few examples:
1. The Challenger Sale (Matthew Dixon & Brent Adamson)
This approach emphasizes teaching, tailoring, and taking control. While it still assumes that persuasion plays a role, the Challenger model encourages salespeople to qualify opportunities more rigorously and avoid wasting time on prospects who are unlikely to act.
2. SPIN Selling (Neil Rackham)
SPIN focuses on asking questions that uncover a buyer’s situation, problem, implication, and need-payoff. It shares some similarities with HPS in that it reduces pressure on the seller to pitch and instead emphasizes discovery. However, it still assumes the salesperson can lead a prospect to a conclusion through carefully structured questioning.
3. Sandler Selling System
Sandler training stresses equal business stature between buyer and seller, up-front contracts, and disqualifying prospects who are not a good fit. This alignment with HPS is clear—especially the idea of putting aside low-probability prospects instead of chasing them. Where it differs is in its continued reliance on techniques for nudging or steering the prospect.
4. Customer-Centric Selling (Michael Bosworth & John Holland)
This framework shifts focus away from persuading and toward facilitating a buying process that is on the customer’s terms. It emphasizes listening and aligning with the buyer’s goals. The overlap with HPS lies in respect for the buyer’s decision-making. Still, it often circles back to “advancing the sale,” which is at odds with the HPS principle of waiting for probability, not possibility.
5. Trust-Based Selling (Charles Green, author of The Trusted Advisor)
This method focuses on transparency, credibility, and focusing on the client’s interests. It resonates with the HPS principle that trust and respect cannot be manufactured but must arise naturally from communication. However, it tends to overemphasize relationship-building, which HPS deliberately avoids in the prospecting stage.
The Distinction of High Probability Selling
All of these approaches represent a shift away from the hard-sell tactics that dominated traditional sales training. They encourage more listening, more honesty, and more focus on whether the buyer is a good fit. In this way, they resemble HPS.
But the difference is fundamental: most of these systems still assume that persuasion and influence are essential parts of selling. High Probability Selling rejects that assumption entirely. Instead of persuading, HPS is about searching—finding the prospects who want what you are offering, and only then continuing the conversation.
That distinction may seem subtle, but it changes everything. It frees salespeople from chasing, pushing, or performing. It also frees prospects from the pressure of being sold to. What remains is a respectful, efficient, and surprisingly simple way of doing business.
We would love to hear your thoughts on this, even if you disagree (especially if you disagree). Please comment or reply to this post online, so others may benefit from your perspective.
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