Possibility vs. Probability in Selling

Most sales training is built around possibility.  If there is any chance that someone might buy, the salesperson is taught to keep pushing, persuading, and following up until something happens.  The thinking goes like this:  the more possibilities you chase, the more sales you will eventually close.

High Probability Selling takes a very different view.  Instead of chasing possibilities, we search for probabilities.  We want to know, right now, what the chances really are that someone will choose to buy from us.  If the probability is high enough, we continue the conversation.  If not, we set it aside and move on for now.

This shift changes everything.  Selling based on possibility is exhausting.  It means investing time and energy into people who may never buy, and who may only be willing to listen politely while you talk.  Selling based on probability is efficient, respectful, and freeing.  It allows both the seller and the prospect to be honest about what they want, without pressure or performance.

The difference is simple, but not small.  Possibility-based selling keeps salespeople trapped in chasing.  Probability-based selling sets them free to discover.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this.  Please comment or reply to this post online, so others may benefit from your perspective. 

Who Else is Teaching Sales Methods that Resemble High Probability Selling?

High Probability Selling (HPS) has been around for decades, yet most sales training programs today still focus on persuasion, manipulation, and closing techniques.  Even so, there is a growing movement of sales thinkers and trainers who advocate methods that echo some of the same principles as HPS, even if they never mention it by name.

Here are a few examples:

1. The Challenger Sale (Matthew Dixon & Brent Adamson)
This approach emphasizes teaching, tailoring, and taking control.  While it still assumes that persuasion plays a role, the Challenger model encourages salespeople to qualify opportunities more rigorously and avoid wasting time on prospects who are unlikely to act.

2. SPIN Selling (Neil Rackham)
SPIN focuses on asking questions that uncover a buyer’s situation, problem, implication, and need-payoff.  It shares some similarities with HPS in that it reduces pressure on the seller to pitch and instead emphasizes discovery.  However, it still assumes the salesperson can lead a prospect to a conclusion through carefully structured questioning.

3. Sandler Selling System
Sandler training stresses equal business stature between buyer and seller, up-front contracts, and disqualifying prospects who are not a good fit.  This alignment with HPS is clear—especially the idea of putting aside low-probability prospects instead of chasing them.  Where it differs is in its continued reliance on techniques for nudging or steering the prospect.

4. Customer-Centric Selling (Michael Bosworth & John Holland)
This framework shifts focus away from persuading and toward facilitating a buying process that is on the customer’s terms.  It emphasizes listening and aligning with the buyer’s goals.  The overlap with HPS lies in respect for the buyer’s decision-making.  Still, it often circles back to “advancing the sale,” which is at odds with the HPS principle of waiting for probability, not possibility.

5. Trust-Based Selling (Charles Green, author of The Trusted Advisor)
This method focuses on transparency, credibility, and focusing on the client’s interests.  It resonates with the HPS principle that trust and respect cannot be manufactured but must arise naturally from communication.  However, it tends to overemphasize relationship-building, which HPS deliberately avoids in the prospecting stage.

The Distinction of High Probability Selling

All of these approaches represent a shift away from the hard-sell tactics that dominated traditional sales training.  They encourage more listening, more honesty, and more focus on whether the buyer is a good fit.  In this way, they resemble HPS.

But the difference is fundamental:  most of these systems still assume that persuasion and influence are essential parts of selling.  High Probability Selling rejects that assumption entirely.  Instead of persuading, HPS is about searching—finding the prospects who want what you are offering, and only then continuing the conversation.

That distinction may seem subtle, but it changes everything.  It frees salespeople from chasing, pushing, or performing.  It also frees prospects from the pressure of being sold to.  What remains is a respectful, efficient, and surprisingly simple way of doing business.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this, even if you disagree (especially if you disagree). Please comment or reply to this post online, so others may benefit from your perspective.

Forum Summary – Why do we try to change people and what happens when we stop?

HPS Community Forum – Thursday, September 18, 2025

In this session, we explored two core questions:  why do we try to change people, and what happens when we stop?

Why do we try to change people?

  • From childhood, we learn to manipulate others as a way to survive and get what we need.  Even as adults, it is hard to let go of those early strategies.
  • Ego plays a role—we believe we know best.
  • Often we don’t stop to consider alternatives.
  • Many of us hold on to the belief that we can change others, despite evidence that it rarely works.
  • Attempts to change others can also come from a sense of powerlessness.
  • Sometimes it is rooted in good intentions:  wanting to help, fix, or rescue someone who appears to be struggling.

What happens when we stop trying?

  • A sense of peace and acceptance emerges, since we are no longer pushing against the impossible.
  • The effort required to interact with others decreases dramatically.
  • We stop worrying about what to say next, and simply listen.
  • Conversations become more relaxed and natural.
  • We absorb and understand more from the other person.

When People Change (their mind)

Dr. John C. Maxwell listed 4 “seasons” about when people change, as he explained in this YouTube video. Note that he called them “seasons” and not “reasons”.

  1. When they hurt enough that they have to
  2. When they see enough they’re inspired to
  3. When they learn enough that they want to
  4. When they receive enough that they are able to

There is nothing in his list about someone convincing them to change. I don’t know why he skipped that one, but I can guess. Perhaps he didn’t think it happened enough to matter.

I also noted that three out of his four points have nothing to do with pain, problems, or need. Only the first one.

Maxwell seems to say that change comes from within each individual, and only when they decide that they are going to change. That fits very well with the thinking behind High Probability Selling.

We do not try to make someone change. We don’t even try to influence someone’s decision to change.

We just want to be there when they do decide to change.

It’s all about positioning. Being in the right place at the right time.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this. For instance, why do you think Maxwell called them “seasons” instead of “reasons”. You are welcome to leave a comment or reply on this blog post.

Customers vs Clients in the High Probability Selling World

Customers are often looking for a product or service in the moment. They may or may not buy again, and the interaction tends to be about the transaction itself. Traditional selling methods often chase customers, using persuasion to turn a “no” or a “maybe” into a “yes” right now, with little consideration for longer term business.

Clients, on the other hand, are people who want what you are offering, are prepared to buy, and willingly agree to mutual commitments. The relationship that naturally forms is based on honesty, respect, and trust. In HPS, clients close themselves because they see the value for their reasons and in their own time, and not because you pushed them.

The High Probability Selling method naturally attracts clients more than customers. It is more likely to lead to long-term relationships with people who actually want what you’re offering, instead of trying to convince reluctant buyers.

New Course: Fundamentals of High Probability Selling, an Interactive Workshop

In this workshop, you’ll gain a clearer understanding of what selling truly is, why “interest” doesn’t predict buying, and how to identify High Probability Prospects.  You’ll learn the principles and standards that guide HPS.  You’ll learn why most methods create resistance and weaken trust and respect.  You’ll see why uncovering potential roadblocks early shortens sales cycles, and how shifting from chasing business to choosing customers changes everything.

This workshop is the starting point for learning High Probability Selling.  Nothing else in HPS will make sense without it.

Details

  • Price:  $500 USD per student
  • Format:  Group workshop, live and interactive on Zoom
  • Duration:  2 weeks, possibly 3
  • Two sessions per week:
    – First session:  primarily instruction
    – Second session:  review and Q&A
    – Each session:  2–3 hours
  • Recordings:  
    – All sessions will be recorded. 
    – Students may view or download them at no extra cost.  
    – We may sell the recordings later.
  • Written materials included.
  • Schedule:  Will be set to meet customer requirements.
  • Open to all
    – with or without reading the book first
    – with or without prior instruction

To sign up and purchase:
https://highprobsell.com/product/fundamentals-of-high-probability-selling-500-usd

If you want to talk with an expert about this workshop, you may book an appointment here:  

Or email us: info@HighProbSell.com

More and More People Want a Less Manipulative Way of Selling

by Carl Ingalls and ChatGPT

It’s hard to put an exact number on how many people are actively searching for a less manipulative way to sell. But several trends make it clear that demand for a different approach is growing.

Distrust of traditional sales tactics is high.
Studies show that 60% of B2B buyers question the integrity of salespeople, and only about one-third find them genuinely helpful. Buyers want something more authentic.

Top sales performers are less manipulative.
Among high-performing salespeople, most rely little (or not at all) on manipulation. They succeed with honesty and transparency—and experience less stress while earning more trust from their clients.

Honest marketing is in demand.
In a recent U.S. survey, nearly half of respondents defined ethical marketing as truthful and transparent messaging. Three out of four believe companies that commit to ethical marketing will be more successful over the long term.

Even salespeople are speaking up.
On a public sales forum, one person summed it up:

“People love buying but hate being sold.”

The shift is happening. Both buyers and sellers are moving toward authentic, respectful approaches to selling—ways that focus on the real probability of a sale rather than trying to force one into existence.

That’s exactly what High Probability Selling is all about.

Why do they keep talking?

I have been cold call prospected at least 3 times this week. Yes, I still answer my phone.  Yes, I was born in the 1900s with all the other Luddites. 

And although it is currently not the 1900s, one persistent belief is still alive and kicking in sales.  The innocuous act of filling out an online lead magnet for some information by email has many hidden meanings.

One of those hidden meanings to many business people is that providing one’s email address to a business is immediately equated to becoming a hot lead for their product or service.

Fearing that my interest in their offering may suddenly go cold in 20 minutes, my phone rings and I answer it.  The call begins, most recently, with me trying to comprehend who the caller is and what they are offering.

The telephone prospector, often using a far eastern dialect (or AI) speaks as if we are in the latter part of an ongoing sales conversation.  They seem to believe that I already understand who they are and which company they are representing, because they rattle it off as if it’s a household name with instant recognition.  I am now of course confused at best.

For me, their business is not a household name. I don’t even remotely understand the caller’s name, if they even mentioned it. Their voice speeds up as the call goes further, perhaps trying to get in as many words as possible before I hang up?

30 long seconds into the call, I am absorbing less and less about what they are selling or offering.  They have spoken something like 150 plus words so far, most of which I can’t understand or relate to.  My brain has closed off 90 percent of my listening at this point.

Then it is time in their script to pitch the appointment with rhetoric promising the saving of time or the saving of money, which of course everyone will agree about.  When this approach doesn’t work, they try the alternate choice close on the appointment date and time.  At least 3 or 4 times.

By this time in their process, I no longer understand what they are selling, AND I no longer care.  All I want to do is to get off the phone.

I finally get a moment where I can interject something like, “I don’t have time for this and don’t need an appointment”.

My effort to be polite is of course ignored by the caller, who continues to repeatedly push for the appointment, while also claiming their intent to be brief.

I say no thank you, I don’t want an appointment because I have no idea what they’re even selling.

They finally say something least leaning towards goodbye, but then they have to profusely thank me for taking the time to listen to them and answer all of their shallow questions while they try one more time to set an appointment!

All I can think of at this point is WHY WHY WHY do they keep talking?  Everyone advises hanging up on them, sometimes preceded by an expletive, but with my brain offline, that’s easier said than done.

It’s 2025, aren’t they tired of all this talking yet?  I sure am.

The Foundation and the Heart of High Probability Selling

by Carl Ingalls, with significant contributions from ChatGPT

I asked ChatGPT, “What is the foundation of High Probability Selling, what is the heart of it, and what is the difference?”

Here is a summary of its answer.

The foundation is the mindset and belief system that underlies all behavior in the HPS process.  The foundation is internal—your beliefs, attitudes, and approach to selling.

The heart is the core practice—what makes HPS different in action.  The heart is external—the actual behavior and methods you use with prospects.

Without the foundation, the heart of HPS could become just another technique for manipulation.

Without the heart, the foundation remains a good philosophy, but doesn’t translate into real-world sales behavior.

Together, they form a system that is both honest and effective.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this.  Please add your comments below, or use our Contact Us page.

When the Interviewer Says, “Sell Me This …”

Suppose you are applying for a sales job, and suppose you are a practitioner of High Probability Selling (HPS).

What would you do if the interviewer told you to sell them their laptop?

Here is a clever and entertaining situation and response found on Tumblr:

I was at a job interview today when the manager handed me a laptop and said: “I want you to try to sell this to me.“

So I put it under my arm, left the building and went home.

Eventually he called me and said: “Bring my laptop back now.“

I said: “$200 and it’s yours.“

Here is a response that I believe is a little more consistent with the principles of HPS, although not as entertaining.

Applicant: “Do you want this laptop?”

Manager: “No.”

Applicant: “Ok. I only sell to people who want what I am offering. Since that’s not you, I’ll find someone who wants it.”

Manager: “Convince me. Talk me into it.”

Applicant: “That’s not the way I work.”

Applicant: “What do you want to do?”

What principles of HPS apply here? Please put your thoughts in the comments, or use the Contact Us page.